6A Identifying Opportunities in Economic & Regulatory Trends

The goal of this post is the find four (4) opportunities, two economic trends and two regulatory ones that might bring about some unmet needs, explain each opportunity, and describe why I see opportunity in these trends/events.

Trend #1: America's economy is currently on the expansion phase of the business cycle. 

1. Where you found it? According the Business Insider, "After years of relatively sluggish growth, the US economy is forecast to grow 2.3 percent over the course of 2017. "
2. What leads you to believe that this information suggests an opportunity might exist? In a business cycle, there is always a peak and a trough. That means that while we are still in the expansion section of the cycle, we should be aware of the signs that brought about previous economic lows so as to prevent them or at least slow their arrival for as long as possible. This being said, there is an unmet need for financial risk-management and a lack of awareness of future economic trends. 
3. Who do you think is most likely to be the customer with the opportunity (i.e., the prototypical customer)? The prototypical client will be any individual who is concerned about future economic trends and is eager to prepare for the effects of those trends. This will include economist who work hard to try to analyze current economic trends and use that information to make educated decision. It will also effect the United States Government who is eager to avoid another economic recession. Additionally, this is important to banks whose actions greatly influenced the previous recession. The information will hopefully allow them to make better decision and prevent the formation of an unmanageable housing bubble. It also will be helpful to the everyday household who want to protect their assets and manage their finances astutely. 
4. Is the opportunity relatively easy or relatively difficult to exploit, and why do you think so? The opportunity is a relatively hard opportunity to manage due the countless conditions that effect the economy; it is hard to be conclusive on economic trends when the network of factors that affects the economy are nuanced and interconnected. 

• Why Do I Care?  As a college student who is fearful of a future recession and whose future career success is dependent on our countries economic soundness, I find it especially important for people who have great economic power as well as people just like me to be able to get the necessary and valid information they need to make educated financial decisions. 

Trend #2: The demand for meat is increasing globally.

1. Where you found it? According to IBISWorld's Market Research Reports on the "Price of Feed" for livestock, "Since 2000, the price of feed has trended up due to the rapid industrialization of China, India and Brazil." The growth of wealth these countries have amassed has influence their eating habits, allowing for more demand in meat products, symbols of wealth in many of these countries. 
2. What leads you to believe that this information suggests an opportunity might exist? With growing research on the environmental effect of growing livestock limiting the supply of meat as well as the growing demand for it by a growing population means there is a gap between the market and the potential buyers that has not been filled. Additionally, according the IBISWorld's Market Reports, the increase in demand in meat means there will be a subsequent demand for feed. The majority of feed is made from corn which is a big part in the growing industry of biodiesel. This growing demand from different sectors, livestock as well as the oil industry, create tension in the industry to meet the demand. Once one starts delving into this change in appetite, it becomes clear that this truly a instigator of economic shifts.   
3. Who do you think is most likely to be the customer with the opportunity (i.e., the prototypical customer)? The newly affluent denizens of countries like China, India, and Brazil are prototypical customers who very eager for more meat options. Other than just those purchasing meat, there are also the producers of meat that will gain great profit from this opportunity. They carry the responsibility of deriving better methods to meet this demand.
4. Is the opportunity relatively easy or relatively difficult to exploit, and why do you think so? The opportunity is relatively hard. The livestock industry is a multi-billion dollar field with a lot of unanswered question on ethics and science, such as how do we deal with the waste we create by producing so much meat? 

• Why Do I Care? I am incredibly fascinated with how sushi is produced and how it is priced. I have frequently wondered and felt frustrated about the price behind a sushi dish, which pushed me to research into what goes into producing sushi. This led me into the aquaculture sector of fish suppliers and subsequently brought me to the broader sector of the livestock. Additionally, after recently becoming a pescatarian, I have become increasing interested in how our meat is raised and produced, which made this an attractive issue to me. 

Trend #3: The potential change or potential repeal of  the American HealthCare Bill

1. Where you found it? According to the New York Times, "... the measure has important differences from the three bills that failed to pass the Senate in July and the one that passed the House in May. And it is those differences that create more uncertainty about the bill’s impact on the lives of millions of Americans."
2. What leads you to believe that this information suggests an opportunity might exist? The repeal of the current HealthCare will mean the shift of coverage for the majority of Americans for better or for worse. This change will mean great confusion and frustration for Americans transitioning from old to new. This will especially affect those who lose coverage due to the change in HealthCare and don't have the resources to get it else where. If the potential healthcare plan is passed, it will eliminate expansion of coverage for many poor and middle-class, Americans who will need assistance in finding an alternative. Additionally, the new bill will consist of the federal government giving states block grants which the states will use to create their own health-care programs. This will necessitate state governments to hire more workers to help create these individualized plans for each states. 
3. Who do you think is most likely to be the customer with the opportunity (i.e. the prototypical customer)? The prototypical customers are probably the individuals and families that had coverage under ObamaCare and don't have it anymore if the new HealthCare is passed as well as the government who is trying to organize around the new bills both in a federal and state level. 
4. Is the opportunity relatively easy or relatively difficult to exploit, and why do you think so? The opportunity will be relatively difficult to exploit because of how complex HealthCare is. Additionally, there are countless different sectors connected to the HealthCare System: the medical industry, government, etc, and the interconnectedness of it makes getting into the system to influence change.

• Why Do I Care? Potential changes in the healthcare plan could directly effect the type of coverage I can get if I or a family member get sick. According to the previous mentioned New York Time article, this new plan is unpredictable because it all depends on the what the state decides to do with the block grant they receive if the bill is passed. The new plan would allow states to provide less comprehensive plans, and this will increase fees for medical transactions. The chance that I might not be able to pay future hospital bills is concerning. 

Trend #4: Congress Is Currently Battling Potential Tax Cuts, Mainly For the Wealthy

1. Where you found it? According to the New York Times, "Republican lawmakers are gearing up to battle a powerful force in the coming skirmish over a $1.5 trillion tax cut..."
2. What leads you to believe that this information suggests an opportunity might exist? The tax cut will bring about less revenue for the federal government since it could eliminate as much as 1.5 trillion dollars in revenue, which will likely induce more federal deficit. The increase in federal deficit is concerning to many people which will create an unmet need for an resolution to damper the effects trying to repay the deficit. However, this might also create a different scenario that would bring about a different unmet need. If the tax cuts encourage more innovation and create jobs by allowing the wealthy companies to create job opportunity, there will be an unmet need for talent.
3. Who do you think is most likely to be the customer with the opportunity (i.e., the prototypical customer)? The prototypical customer is the government who will need to accurately predict what future economic trends are.
4. Is the opportunity relatively easy or relatively difficult to exploit, and why do you think so? This is an incredibly hard opportunity to capitalize on since the issue has so many facets and could pan out in many different ways. That would make it hard to pinpoint what is the most effective method of reaching that unmet opportunity. 

• Why Do I Care? Since there is a chance that this plan will induce more federal deficit, as a millennial who will be responsible for paying back the debt, it's important to me that these tax cuts don't negatively effect the me and my peers' futures. 

Work Cited

Glassman, Jim. “JPMORGAN: Here Are the 7 Key Economic Trends to Watch for in 2017.”Business Insider, Business Insider, 25 Jan. 2017, www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-head-economist-on-7-trends-will-shape-the-economy-in-2017-2017-1.

“Price of Feed.” IBISWorld Business Environment Profiles, IBISWorld, Apr. 2017, clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/bed/default.aspx?bedid=4519.

Rappeport, Alan. “In Battle Over Tax Cuts, It’s Republicans vs. Economists.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 22 Sept. 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/us/politics/in-battle-over-tax-cuts-its-republicans-vs-economists.html?rref.

Park, Haeyoun. “Three Ways the New Republican Health Bill Differs From Past Repeal Efforts.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 22 Sept. 2017, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/22/us/republican-health-plan-comparison.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FHealth%2BCare%2BReform&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection.